I have a confession. On 6 October last year, the day bitcoin set its record at about $126,000, I did not think, ” This is the top”. I thought the number looked rather reasonable. That is how tops work. They do not feel like the edge of anything.
A year on, bitcoin is trading around $85,500. That is 32% below the record, and I am going to argue that it is the most encouraging number crypto has produced in years. Bear with me.
What a Year After the Peak Used to Look Like
Bitcoin has had three earlier great peaks, and CoinDesk has laid them side by side. Twelve months after the 2013 high, it was down 69.7%. After 2017, it was down 82.3%; after 2021, 74.6%. Those were not corrections. Those were the sort of falls that make people delete the app and take up gardening.
This time the worst point came on 30 June, at about $59,000, 53% below the record. Unpleasant, certainly. But the price has climbed back roughly 45% since then. The loss assessed over the full year is less than half what history would have led anyone to expect.
Who Was Holding It
The explanation I find most convincing is about who owns the stuff now. Earlier cycles were built on individuals trading with borrowed money, which is a marvellous way to go up quickly and an even better way to come down. A great deal of that borrowing was wiped out four days following the record, on 10 October 2025, when about $19bn of leveraged bets were forcibly closed. It never really came back.
In its place came buyers who move slowly and fill in forms. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), asset managers, family offices, company treasuries. I wrote about that shift in The Most Cautious Money on Wall Street Just Bought Crypto, and this year has been the first test. People with an investment committee to answer to do not sell at three in the morning because of something they read online.
The cost sits on the other side of the ledger. Bitcoin’s swings have roughly halved, with annual volatility near 40% where 80% or more used to be normal. Shallower falls almost certainly mean lower peaks too. An asset cannot be both tamer and wilder. I have made my peace with that, mostly.
Now Look at Everything Else
Here is where the cheerful story stops. Over the same twelve months, Ether is down about 40%, Solana about 48% and XRP about 50%. 24/7 Wall St reviewed the larger coins and found only five higher a year ago. Zcash is up roughly 800%. Hyperliquid is up about 90%, Monero 66%, NEAR 63% and Uniswap 9%.
I looked for the thread that connects them, as the author did, and neither of us found one. One is for private payments, one is a trading venue, one hosts applications, one swaps tokens. If anyone tells you they saw that list coming, ask to see the dated email.
So the year has split the market in two. Bitcoin behaved like an asset having a bad year. Most of the rest behaved like a raffle, with one enormous prize and a long queue of losing tickets.
What I Have Changed, and What I Have Not
My size view has not changed. Anything this volatile belongs in a slice small enough that a year like this one stings without rearranging a life. That has not changed. What has changed is how I think about two halves. I used to treat crypto as one thing. This year has persuaded me that bitcoin and everything else are different bets with different odds, and that the second deserves less enthusiasm. My impatience still reads the list of five winners and wants to find the sixth. It is welcome to keep looking.
The risk I am watching is not inside crypto at all. Long-term interest rates are at their highest in more than twenty years, and a market that now belongs to institutions will feel that in a way the old one never did. A milder bear market is not a promise. It is one year of evidence.
Still, a year ago I mistook the top for an ordinary Monday. Today I can at least say what I think and why, which is the only anniversary present worth having.
The Jacqueline Brand — knowledge builds confidence, and confidence builds wealth. This is editorial commentary for information and education only. It is not financial, investment or professional advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any investment. The Jacqueline Brand is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and past performance is not a guide to future returns. Figures were correct at the time of publication. Always do your own research and consider speaking to a regulated adviser. Where cryptoassets are discussed, they are high risk and largely unregulated in the UK, and you could lose all the money you invest. The Collection
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