If the world economy were a group project, how many people would actually be doing the work?
The International Monetary Fund answered that this week, and the answer was fewer than you might hope. According to its latest World Economic Outlook, released at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, just 32 countries now account for 95% of global growth. In April, it was 54.
The Headline Was Good News
On the surface, the report was cheerful. The IMF now expects the world economy to grow 3.1% this year, up from the 3.0% it forecast in July, though still below the 3.5% in 2025. Next year, it expects growth to pick up to 3.4%.
If you read the headline, you might conclude that everything was fine. The IMF’s own title for the report, Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices, suggests otherwise.
The Detail Was Not Evenly Spread
The IMF says growth is being redistributed between countries based on two things: how exposed they are to the energy shock from the war in the Middle East, and how much they benefit from spending on artificial intelligence.
The United States is expected to grow 2.3% this year and next. China is forecast at 4.5%, down from 5% last year. India remains the fastest-growing major economy at 7%. The 21 countries that share the euro, by contrast, are expected to manage just 1.1% this year and 1.2% next. Developing and emerging economies as a group are expected to slow from 4.5% to 3.7%, while the Middle East and Central Asia are expected to shrink this year before recovering in 2027.
The AI boom is helping, but not evenly. The report found that the United States and China together account for more than three-quarters of net demand for imported chips and other AI equipment. Money is flowing, just not everywhere.
The Assumptions Matter More Than the Number
Every forecast rests on assumptions, and these deserve a careful read. The IMF assumes oil averages $96 a barrel this year, roughly a 41% increase. It assumes shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume by March. It expects global inflation of 4.7% this year, easing to 4.1% next year.
As I write, Brent crude is above $100 a barrel, comfortably over that average. Forecasts are written in pencil, and the eraser is usually oil.
Forty Per Cent of Jobs
The line that stayed with me came from Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director. She estimated that around 40% of jobs worldwide will, over time, be augmented, downgraded or eliminated by AI, and described the shift as a slow-moving tsunami. Her main point wasn’t that the changes will happen tomorrow. It has already started.
What This Means for Ordinary People
Most of us will never set economic policy. But we all live inside these numbers. When growth concentrates in fewer places, the opportunities concentrate too: the industries that hire, the markets that pay, and the businesses that expand.
I read the country tables in a report like this the way some people read property listings. I’m less interested in the headline price than in where things are moving. Recently, I wrote about how the world’s biggest shoppers spent very differently. This report tells the same story at the level of entire nations, and it is one reason I keep reading beyond my own country’s headlines.
Growth is moving, and it does not send a forwarding address. The people who do well over the next few years will be the ones who notice where it has gone, in their investments, careers, and in the markets where they choose to sell their skills. You can read the full World Economic Outlook on the IMF website if you would like the detail behind the headlines.
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