SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic — a parade of giant companies is preparing to sell shares to the public. Before you get swept up in the excitement, here’s what an IPO actually is and how to think about it without losing your head.
There’s a particular kind of electricity in the markets when the giants finally come to the stock exchange — and it’s crackling right now. SpaceX has just gone public. And the two AI titans everyone’s watching, OpenAI and Anthropic, are lining up to follow, in what could be some of the biggest market debuts in history.
The headlines are breathless, the valuations are dizzying, and the pull to dive in will be enormous. This is exactly why I want to sit you down for a minute — before anyone reaches for their wallet — and walk through what’s really going on.
First — what’s an IPO, in plain English?
IPO stands for “Initial Public Offering,” and it’s simpler than the jargon makes it sound.
For most of its life, a company like SpaceX is “private” — owned by its founders, staff, and a handful of wealthy early backers. You and I can’t buy a piece. An IPO is the moment when doors are thrown open, and shares are offered to the public for the first time, listing on an exchange where anyone can buy in. Overnight, a company that was off-limits becomes something you could, in theory, own a slice of.
And that appeal is real — it opens up companies that used to be the preserve of insiders and institutions. But here’s my big “but”: the very excitement that surrounds them is what makes them dangerous if you’re not careful. The thrill of finally being let in is exactly what clouds people’s judgment.
The catch nobody mentions in the hype
Here’s the sober bit. “Giant and glamorous” does not mean “safe.”
History is littered with hotly hyped mega-IPOs that soared, then sagged for years — leaving the everyday investors who piled in at the peak nursing losses while the early insiders cashed out comfortably. Two examples worth keeping in mind:
- Saudi Aramco was listed at nearly $1.7 trillion in 2019 — and still trades below its opening price.
- Facebook fell about 38% in the six months after its IPO before it ever found its feet.
In fact, of the five largest IPOs in history, only one (Visa) went on to meaningfully beat the market.
And the problem is structural. By the time a company is ready for IPO, the people who got the truly cheap shares — the founders and early backers — are often looking to sell. The public is frequently invited in at a price already puffed up by months of hype. You’re not getting in on the ground floor; you’re often arriving just as the early birds are heading for the exits.
How I actually think about it
I’ll be honest about my own approach, because it’s saved me a lot of grief: I don’t chase hype. And few things in finance generate more of it than a glamorous mega-IPO.
The way I’ve learned to invest isn’t to fling money at the most exciting business of that month. It’s to judge a company on its actual value, calmly, once the fireworks have faded. There’s rarely any need to buy on day one. The genuinely good businesses will still be there in six months — often at a saner price, once the frenzy has burned itself out.
Look at SpaceX right now: it jumped more than 20% after listing. Maybe that holds, maybe it doesn’t — but notice how the euphoria makes it almost impossible to tell what the thing is really worth. That fog is exactly what I wait for to clear.
Where I land
So by all means watch this trillion-dollar parade — it’s a genuinely fascinating moment in markets, and I’m watching closely too. Just watch it the way I try to: with curiosity, a healthy dose of scepticism, and a firm hand on your wallet.
The crowd will be sprinting toward these shares. Me? I’d rather stroll, look properly, and let the hype exhaust itself before I decide whether there’s anything worth owning underneath.
The Jacqueline Brand — knowledge builds confidence, confidence builds wealth. This is editorial commentary for inspiration, not financial or professional advice. Always do your own research. The Collection
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