There is an estate agent’s window on my local high street that I walk past most days, and over the summer I started noticing a small change. The boards had not changed much. The little strips across the corners had. Reduced. Reduced. New price. By the end of August it looked less like a shop window and more like a clearance rail with better photography.
So I was interested to see Rightmove’s September report announce that asking prices had risen.
The Headline Figure
The average asking price of a home coming to market in Britain rose by 0.7 per cent in September to £367,440, the first monthly increase since May. Rightmove’s Colleen Babcock described it as “a welcome sign of confidence after a particularly subdued summer.” Autumn usually brings a seasonal lift as sellers return after the holidays, and September’s rise was a little stronger than normal for the time of year.
Now look at the rest of the report, because that is where the story is.
The Numbers Underneath
Compared with a year ago, asking prices are still 0.8 per cent lower. Buyer enquiries are down 9 per cent on last year, and so is the number of sales agreed. The number of homes for sale has reached its highest level in twelve years.
Put those together, and you have a market with more sellers, fewer buyers and fewer deals. Only around 61 per cent of homes now find a buyer, compared with 74 per cent in 2021. It takes an average of 64 days to find one, and a further 150 days from agreed sale to completion. That is roughly seven months from listing to moving day, which is longer than some people’s entire relationship with their mortgage broker.
The regional differences are striking. In Scotland, around 91 per cent of homes find a buyer. In the North West the figure is 71 per cent. In the South East it drops to 56 per cent, and in London it is just 42 per cent. There is no such thing as the British property market. Dozens of local ones sharing a currency.
Why Borrowing Costs Are the Real Story
The average two-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.29 per cent this month, up from 5.09 per cent in August, according to Rightmove’s own tracking. That number decides what buyers can actually afford, and it has been moving in the wrong direction for them.
Mortgage rates are priced off where markets expect interest rates to go, not where they are today. With inflation climbing on fuel costs and three members of the Bank of England’s committee already voting for a rise, lenders have been pricing in a tougher road ahead. I wrote about how a jump in inflation sets a higher floor for everything that follows in Why Life Still Costs More When Inflation Falls. Housing is where the floor is felt most directly.
Asking Is Not Getting
An asking price is an opinion. It is what a seller, usually encouraged by an agent keen to win the instruction, hopes someone will pay. A sold price is a fact. The gap between the two widens in exactly the kind of market we are in now, and several agents have been making the point that the sellers who are moving are the ones prepared to be flexible on price.
That is why I read Rightmove’s index alongside the official figures rather than instead of them. The Rightmove House Price Index tells you what sellers are hoping for. The official Land Registry data, which arrives later, tells you what buyers agreed to. Both are useful. Only one of them is what anybody actually paid.
How I Am Reading It
If you are a buyer with your finances in order, this is the most negotiating power buyers have had in some time, particularly in the South East and London. If you are a seller, the uncomfortable truth is that the market is not rejecting your home. It is rejecting your price, and the market is usually right about that sooner or later.
As for that window on the high street, I will keep walking past it. The boards will tell me more about the next six months than any headline. When the reduced strips start coming down, that is when the story has really changed.
The Jacqueline Brand — knowledge builds confidence, confidence builds wealth. This is editorial commentary for inspiration, not financial or professional advice. Always do your own research. The Collection
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